No. 1 Overall Picks Since 2015: How Their Rookie Seasons Compared
A typical number 1 pick rookie season since 2015 has produced 62.4 games and 17.4 points per game. That average hides enormous differences: Ben Simmons sat out an entire season before winning Rookie of the Year, Zion Williamson played only 24 games, and Markelle Fultz appeared 14 times. Five of the 11 completed cases won the award. AJ Dybantsa’s 2026-27 sample remains far too small to judge.
Every number 1 pick rookie season since 2015
The comparison below uses Basketball-Reference rookie-season figures for games and scoring. Simmons is treated according to NBA rookie eligibility: he played zero games in 2016-17 after right-foot Jones-fracture surgery, then made his official rookie debut in 2017-18.
| Draft | Player | Team | Rookie season | Games | Points per game | ROY result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Minnesota Timberwolves | 2015-16 | 82 | 18.3 | Yes |
| 2016 | Ben Simmons | Philadelphia 76ers | 2017-18 | 81 | 15.8 | Yes |
| 2017 | Markelle Fultz | Philadelphia 76ers | 2017-18 | 14 | 7.1 | No |
| 2018 | Deandre Ayton | Phoenix Suns | 2018-19 | 71 | 16.3 | No |
| 2019 | Zion Williamson | New Orleans Pelicans | 2019-20 | 24 | 22.5 | No |
| 2020 | Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | 2020-21 | 72 | 19.3 | No |
| 2021 | Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | 2021-22 | 64 | 17.4 | No |
| 2022 | Paolo Banchero | Orlando Magic | 2022-23 | 72 | 20.0 | Yes |
| 2023 | Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | 2023-24 | 71 | 21.4 | Yes |
| 2024 | Zaccharie Risacher | Atlanta Hawks | 2024-25 | 75 | 12.6 | No; Stephon Castle won |
| 2025 | Cooper Flagg | Dallas Mavericks | 2025-26 | 70 | 21.0 | Yes |
| 2026 | AJ Dybantsa | Washington Wizards | 2026-27 through Nov. 3 | 3 | 19.0 | Undecided; season in progress |
From 2015 through 2025, the 11 completed rookie campaigns averaged 62.4 games and 17.4 points. Those figures include Simmons’ 81-game 2017-18 campaign, not the inactive season immediately after Philadelphia drafted him.
The range matters more than the mean. Towns played all 82 games in 2015-16, while Fultz and Williamson combined for only 38 appearances in their respective rookie seasons. Availability can determine how much evaluators learn, and it can effectively end an award case before the player has enough time to establish one.
How often does the No. 1 pick win Rookie of the Year?
Five of the 11 completed No. 1-pick rookie cases from 2015 through 2025 ended with Rookie of the Year: Towns, Simmons, Banchero, Wembanyama and Flagg. That’s fewer than half. Being selected first establishes draft status, not an automatic advantage once voting begins.
The winners in this group generally combined scoring with enough games to build a season-long case. Towns played 82 games in 2015-16, Simmons played 81 in 2017-18, Banchero played 72 in 2022-23, Wembanyama played 71 in 2023-24 and Flagg played 70 in 2025-26. Every winner reached 70 appearances.
That pattern is descriptive, not a rule. Still, it shows why a spectacular scoring average alone doesn’t settle the award. Williamson’s 22.5 points per game in 24 games during 2019-20 was the highest scoring average among the completed rookie seasons listed here, yet his limited availability left him without the trophy.
Scoring and availability tell different stories
If you rank these players strictly by points per game, Williamson’s 2019-20 season sits above Wembanyama’s 21.4 in 2023-24 and Flagg’s 21.0 in 2025-26. If you rank them by games played, Williamson falls near the bottom. One column captures production when active; the other captures how much of a season the player actually supplied.
Fultz is the starkest warning against treating all rookie lines alike. His 7.1 points across 14 games in 2017-18 cannot carry the same evaluative weight as Ayton’s 16.3 across 71 games in 2018-19. The samples describe completely different workloads.
Risacher supplies another useful distinction. He played 75 games for Atlanta in 2024-25, more than any No. 1 pick in this group except Towns and Simmons, but averaged 12.6 points and lost the award to Stephon Castle. For more background on Atlanta’s selection, see our account of Risacher going first in the 2024 NBA Draft.
The lesson is simple: durability strengthens a case, but durability by itself doesn’t produce an award. Role, scoring burden and competition within the class still matter. Honestly, reducing any number 1 pick rookie season to points per game strips out too much context.
The injury caveat behind the comparisons
Three cases require especially careful reading. Simmons underwent surgery for a right-foot Jones fracture and did not play during 2016-17, according to the 76ers and NBA.com. His rookie statistics therefore belong to 2017-18, even though Philadelphia drafted him in 2016.
Williamson’s 24-game 2019-20 line offers substantial scoring evidence but a restricted season sample. Fultz’s 14 appearances in 2017-18 provide even less evidence. Neither situation should be turned into medical speculation; the relevant comparison is simply how many NBA games each player completed during his recognized rookie campaign.
For readers evaluating the table, three checks help keep the comparisons honest:
- Match each statistic to the player’s official rookie season, rather than assuming it occurred directly after the draft.
- Read points per game beside games played, especially for samples below a full season.
- Separate completed Rookie of the Year results from an active race such as Dybantsa’s 2026-27 campaign.
What AJ Dybantsa’s first three games actually show
Dybantsa’s current line is 19.0 points per game across three appearances through November 3, 2026, according to Basketball-Reference. That scoring average would sit above the 17.4-point average for the 11 completed cases, but the comparison is premature. Three games are a snapshot, not a rookie season.
His start was delayed by a sprained ankle, which caused him to miss Washington’s first four games. Dybantsa made his regular-season debut at Cleveland on October 28, recording 19 points in 27 minutes on 8-of-12 shooting, with two rebounds and two assists.
The NBA reported that it was Washington’s highest-scoring rookie debut since Tom Gugliotta scored 20 points on November 2, 1992. That’s a useful historical marker. It doesn’t establish what Dybantsa’s scoring, efficiency or availability will look like over the remaining 2026-27 schedule.
A fuller examination of what Dybantsa’s opening weeks show should remain anchored to the changing sample. Each additional game can move a three-game average sharply, particularly before minutes and offensive responsibilities settle.
What would constitute a realistic full season? The historical group offers a broad baseline rather than a prediction: 62.4 games and 17.4 points per game across the completed 2015-2025 cases. Dybantsa is scoring above that benchmark through November 3, but he has already missed four team games and has completed only three himself.
Draft position is a starting point, not a rookie verdict
The No. 1 pick is usually expected to carry a large offensive role immediately, yet this group contains every type of opening season: ironman campaigns, delayed debuts, brief injury-affected samples, high-volume scoring years and quieter developmental seasons. The award results reflect that variety.
Cooper Flagg represents the recent high-end outcome. Dallas’s top pick averaged 21.0 points in 70 games during 2025-26 and was named Rookie of the Year on April 28, 2026. Our earlier Cooper Flagg draft analysis provides the pre-NBA context, but the award was earned through a completed regular-season body of work.
Dybantsa hasn’t reached that stage. If you want to compare him with Towns, Banchero, Wembanyama or Flagg, games played must accumulate alongside the scoring. The honest verdict as of November 3 is narrow: his debut was productive, his three-game average is promising, and his Rookie of the Year outcome remains undecided.
FAQ about No. 1 picks and rookie seasons
How many No. 1 picks since 2015 won Rookie of the Year?
Five of the 11 completed cases from the 2015 through 2025 drafts won: Karl-Anthony Towns, Ben Simmons, Paolo Banchero, Victor Wembanyama and Cooper Flagg.
Why was Ben Simmons a rookie in 2017-18?
Simmons played zero games in 2016-17 after surgery for a right-foot Jones fracture. His 81-game 2017-18 campaign was therefore his official rookie season, and he won Rookie of the Year.
Which No. 1 pick had the highest rookie scoring average in this comparison?
Zion Williamson averaged 22.5 points across 24 games in the 2019-20 regular season. His scoring led the completed group, but the small number of appearances limited his award case.
What is the average number 1 pick rookie season since 2015?
Across the 11 completed cases from 2015 through 2025, No. 1 picks averaged 62.4 games and 17.4 points per game. The calculation uses Simmons’ official 2017-18 rookie campaign.
How is AJ Dybantsa performing as a rookie?
Through November 3, 2026, Basketball-Reference listed Dybantsa at 19.0 points per game over three games. He debuted on October 28 after missing Washington’s first four games with a sprained ankle, so the sample remains incomplete.
